Summary:
The rise of China to the position of presumptive superpower in the international system in a globalized world has increased the number, complexity and urgency of issues to be managed in US-China relations. Meanwhile, one specific issue remains ever-present as one of the most relevant concerns in US-China ties, and a matter of major interest to the international system in the 21st century: Taiwan. This presentation explains the basic dynamics of this triangular Washington-Taipei-Beijing relationship, discusses some conditions under which stability in the Taiwan Strait could be maintained, and explores the obstacles that might impede improvement in triangular dynamics.
The presentation begins by briefly examining the history of Taiwan’s interactions with the international system, its ties to the United States, and the relationship between Taiwan and China, which has been in a constant state of turbulent flux. Up to the Qing Dynasty, the island had little contact with China. It was European countries, specifically the Portuguese and the Dutch, that first entered and colonized Taiwan during the 16th and 17th centuries. It was only under the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911 AD) that Taiwan came to be part of Imperial China, before being transferred to the Japanese Empire in 1895, as a spoil of the First Sino-Japanese War of 1894. Once World War II ended, and Japan withdrew, Taiwan became part of the Republic of China under Nationalist (Kuomingtang) control, and became a player in the defining geopolitical contest of the day: the Cold War. This presentation will examine how this history, and especially the patterns that developed during the Cold War, are still very much definitive of the trilateral relationship today.